Why yesterday's planning assumptions aren't fit for the future

Nexus special coverage on the future we build, discusses how better infrastructure decisions can create more resilient, adaptive and prosperous futures.

Every generation inherits the infrastructure decisions made by the one before it.

The roads we travel, the water systems we rely on, the energy networks that power our communities and the digital infrastructure that increasingly connects them all - reflect choices made decades earlier. Those decisions have shaped where we live, how our economies function and the opportunities available to future generations.

The decisions we make today will have consequences just as enduring.

That responsibility has rarely been greater. Global infrastructure investment needs are estimated at USD 106 trillion through 2040, underscoring the scale of the decisions being made today and their long-term implications. The choices being made today will influence economic prosperity, environmental resilience and community wellbeing for decades to come.

Yet the context in which those decisions are being made has fundamentally changed.

For much of the past century, infrastructure planning has relied heavily on historical patterns, long-term forecasts and assumptions of relative stability. Those tools remain essential, but their limitations become more consequential as structural forces interact, accelerate and change direction.

Today, infrastructure sits at the intersection of multiple structural forces that are changing simultaneously. Technological acceleration, geopolitical realignment, climate change, biodiversity loss and demographic shifts are each significant in their own right. The greater challenge is what happens as they converge.

These forces do not move independently or at the same speed. They interact, reinforce and sometimes amplify one another, creating second and third-order effects that are difficult to anticipate through conventional forecasting. A technological shift can reshape energy demand, which influences investment and supply chains, which in turn creates new geopolitical, workforce and resource pressures.

In its Global Risks Report 2026, the World Economic Forum describes these structural forces as undergoing "convergence and acceleration", with their influence across those technological, climatic, geostrategic and demographic domains expected to deepen over the next decade.

For infrastructure leaders, this matters because the assumptions underpinning a decision can change while the asset itself may remain in service for generations. The challenge is increasingly to understand not only individual forces of change, but how their interaction could reshape the conditions in which today's decisions must perform.

The challenge extends beyond simply responding to uncertainty. It requires recognising that infrastructure has become one of the primary ways we shape the future itself.

That shift requires a different way of thinking. Not because we can predict the future with greater certainty, but because we need to explore a range of plausible futures and test today's decisions against them.

Traditionally, it has been possible to think about infrastructure largely in sectors. Energy. Water. Transport. Each had its own planning frameworks, investment cycles and measures of success.

That distinction is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

Today, almost every significant infrastructure decision sits at the intersection of multiple systems. A decision about energy influences water demand. Artificial intelligence reshapes electricity networks and digital infrastructure. Climate resilience affects insurance markets, investment decisions and community expectations. Biodiversity influences how projects are designed, approved and valued over time.

The consequences of these interactions are becoming increasingly visible. IFC cites estimated average annual losses of more than USD 700 billion to infrastructure and buildings globally from climate-related and geological hazards, based on global probabilistic risk models, reinforcing that resilience is no longer simply an environmental concern. It has become a strategic economic consideration that influences investment, insurance and long-term infrastructure performance.

Understanding those connections is becoming one of the defining leadership challenges of our time.

Infrastructure has always required long-term thinking. Infrastructure assets shape economics and communities for decades, requiring decisions to account for changing conditions across their full life cycle. The choices made during planning continue to shape communities and the natural environment long after projects are delivered.

What has changed is not the need for long-term planning, but the conditions in which those decisions are made.

The challenge is that assumptions can become obsolete long before the assets they shape reach the end of their life. A forecast may still be technically robust, yet the conditions on which it depends can shift much faster than the infrastructure it was intended to guide.

In this environment, leaders need to test assumptions continually rather than rely too heavily on a single forecast. Strategic decisions increasingly depend on understanding current trends and recognising how emerging shifts could reshape the conditions in which infrastructure must perform over time. That means identifying the signals and thresholds that should prompt assumptions to be revisited and adapting decisions as new evidence emerges.

If the context for infrastructure decisions has changed, it follows that the way we approach those decisions must evolve as well.

For many years, long-term planning has been underpinned by a simple objective: improve our ability to predict the future. Better forecasts, better models and better data have all sought to reduce uncertainty and provide greater confidence in investment decisions.

Those capabilities remain important.

But in an increasingly interconnected world, the task is shifting from predicting the future to helping to shape it. Because technological, environmental, geopolitical and societal forces increasingly interact and reinforce one another, conventional planning can struggle to account for how change unfolds across systems over time.

This is where Strategic Foresight provides a structured approach and practical toolkit for exploring uncertainty, challenging assumptions and making better long-term decisions across multiple plausible futures. It does not replace forecasting, engineering judgement or established risk and regulatory disciplines. It complements them by broadening the conditions and assumptions considered before decisions are made.

Rather than asking "What is most likely to happen?", it encourages leaders to ask a different set of questions.

• Which assumptions underpin our decisions?
• What signals suggest those assumptions may be changing?
• How might different futures unfold?
• Which decisions will continue to create value across a range of plausible futures?
• What level of downside or disruption are we prepared to accept, and what conditions would trigger a different course?

These questions do not eliminate uncertainty. They strengthen judgement and decision making.

They encourage leaders to think beyond optimisation for a single expected future and towards stewardship: making decisions that remain resilient, adaptive and valuable as conditions evolve.

This is more than an academic exercise. Strategic Foresight enables teams to engage with uncertainty collectively, combining diverse perspectives, evidence-based intelligence and structured discussion to surface assumptions, stress-test options and build confidence in strategic decisions. Crucially, those insights must then translate into clear choices, ownership and action.

Strategic Foresight is not about predicting tomorrow with greater precision. It is about improving the quality of the decisions we make today.

Infrastructure has always created value beyond the projects themselves.

Strong infrastructure investments are measured by more than delivery performance. They continue to support communities, strengthen economies, care for the natural environment and adapt as conditions change.

As the context for infrastructure decisions becomes more interconnected, the quality of those decisions becomes increasingly important.

This is where Strategic Foresight creates value.

It strengthens the decisions that sit behind engineering, investment and long-term planning by broadening the range of futures against which those choices are tested.

Perhaps most importantly, it encourages leaders to move beyond asking, "What project should we build?"

Instead, it asks a broader question:

"What future are we trying to create, and how can today's infrastructure decisions help bring that future about?"

Infrastructure is becoming one of the primary ways societies shape more prosperous, resilient and regenerative futures. It increasingly provides a mechanism for influencing economic, technological and environmental change.

In that sense, Strategic Foresight extends beyond preparedness. It enables organisations to identify emerging opportunities, make deliberate choices and help shape the futures they want to see.

Every generation leaves behind more than infrastructure.

It leaves behind the choices that shaped how people live, work, move and prosper alongside our natural environment.

We cannot predict every change that lies ahead. Nor should that be the goal.

The greater opportunity is to strengthen the quality of today's decisions, so they continue creating value across a range of possible futures.

That requires more than better forecasts.

It requires curiosity to challenge assumptions. The discipline to recognise emerging signals. The confidence to think beyond individual projects and consider the systems they influence. And ultimately, the stewardship to make decisions that serve not only today's communities, but future generations.

Infrastructure has always shaped society. Today, the central question is not only what we build, but the long-term outcomes those choices create.

Ultimately, future generations will inherit the consequences of the decisions we make today.

I believe we'll look back on this period as the moment infrastructure planning fundamentally evolved.

Success will increasingly rest on whether infrastructure continues to create value amid technological, environmental and societal change.

Strategic Foresight will become a core leadership capability, helping organisations make better-informed decisions that remain valuable as technologies, environmental pressures and societal expectations continue to evolve.

Strategic Foresight will not make the future more predictable. It can make today's decisions more robust. As infrastructure choices become more interconnected and enduring, the organisations that lead will be those that test assumptions early and make decisions designed to remain valuable as conditions change.

Nexus special coverage on the future we build, discusses how better infrastructure decisions can create more resilient, adaptive and prosperous futures. Through the lens of Strategic Foresight, the series examines how leaders can make better long-term decisions in an increasingly interconnected world.

Over the coming months, this series will explore:

• Seeing the whole system – Why infrastructure challenges can no longer be understood in isolation.
• The new economics of resilience – Why resilience is becoming a strategic investment rather than simply a cost.
• Building delivery capability – Why organisational capability is becoming infrastructure's next competitive advantage.
• Designing with nature, not around it – How stewardship and natural systems are reshaping infrastructure planning.
• Harnessing technology without creating tomorrow's constraints – Using Strategic Foresight to anticipate the long-term impacts of AI, robotics and emerging technologies.
• Leading through uncertainty – Why better decisions, not better predictions, will define tomorrow's infrastructure leaders.