Can digital simulation save lives?

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Nexus, Publish By GHD.

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Where ideas connect.

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We are

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really at a turning

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point here when it comes to the technology

that is available to aid

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wildfire evacuation planning

and in general, emergency management,

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because we have more and more simulation

tools that can actually enable predictions

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of how these kinds of threats

and scenarios evolve,

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meaning

that we can kind of see the future.

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Welcome back

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Today's a special topic

because we're really diving into

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climate change and technology.

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But I actually had a really interesting

conversation with my family this morning.

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And they're like,

why are you talking about wildfires

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when it comes to climate change

and technology and evacuation technology?

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So I thought before we dive into anything

technology related,

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can we talk a bit about wildfires

and the industry

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and the rise of wildfires,

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and how why it's such an important topic

in climate change?

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I'm Dan Stockdale, I'm a senior advisor

and part of the GHD team

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working within Bluefin Strategies.

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So always looking about

how people are moving around spaces and

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how we can better optimize those systems

to improve performance and outcomes.

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And I guess

moving people in a community evacuation

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during a wildfire

or other emergency event is no different.

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I have that kind of firsthand experience.

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When I moved from the UK to Canada

last year, where I was in Jasper

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while I was actually one of 20,000 people

that were evacuated

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as part of that and felt the first hand

the need for kind of the important

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planning and the emergency response

required to move those number

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of people in such a short period of time

to such an evolving issue.

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That fire was born out within two hours.

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It was over 6000 hectares,

which was only 6000

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football fields, and then 48 hours later

it was 30,000.

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So it was growing a huge, huge rate

with 30 to 40m high flames

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and to spot fires

starting from over half a kilometer away.

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And that was in Alberta

and the national park.

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There was huge economic damage

and impact to the tourism industry,

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but obviously we saw the impacts

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of the fires in LA and the monetary value

that was impacted from that.

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So that's something that's only going

to get more important as we plan for that.

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Cameron, do you think

are we at unprecedented times, like what

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are you noticing as also a person

that's in this field?

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Yeah.

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So unfortunately we are experiencing

increased frequency

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and severity of these events.

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And we're already seeing that.

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And the research is suggesting on the path

that we're heading towards

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that we're going to continue seeing that.

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So we really need to be able to adapt

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and anticipate these events

and be prepared as much as possible.

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Okay.

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And I guess, like who really takes

the responsibility of

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at the end of the day, is it

the firefighters or are your planners like

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what does industry need to do to actually

start planning and tackling for it?

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And Dan, from your firsthand experience,

like what had happened, like,

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was it only firefighters that showed up

or did you see some evacuation routes?

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So they had an emergency response

and an incident planning team

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that were deployed.

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And that's a scalable team that

can respond to the issue that's required.

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So that was a team of emergency

responders, council members

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and community members as well.

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But they were looking at both tracking

and monitoring the fire,

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but also looking at how

and when they were going to evacuate those

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people from the town scape.

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Yeah, exactly.

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And like Danny's saying,

there's so many stakeholders

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involved in so many moving

pieces and variables can take an account

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as an event is about to happen

is happening for an evacuation.

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So as Dan mentioned,

first responders, emergency management.

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You have the residents,

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vulnerable residents

who might not be able to move as much.

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You have unhoused populations, tourists

who might not know the area as well.

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So really taking into account

all these different folks, and I think

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during an evacuation,

it really takes everyone's involvement.

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And in terms of the industries,

everyone has a role to play, whether it be

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planning or climate change mitigation.

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There's just so many aspects to this

with that, just trying to understand

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how has technology evolved

in this landscape.

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Rinko, do you want to talk a bit about

that technology and how it's changed?

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Yeah, I think we are really

at a turning point here

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when it comes to the technology

that is available to aid wildfire

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evacuation planning and in general

emergency management, because we have more

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and more simulation tools

that can actually enable predictions

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of how these kinds of threats

and scenarios evolve,

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meaning that we can kind of see the future

and that's, really fast in a team

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because, that helps us a lot in planning

and managing these kind of emergencies.

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So the current tools that we see

available, for instance,

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are trying to merge different layers

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through modeling and simulations

that can play an important role.

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So for instance, both try to understand

how the wildfire was spread

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and all the physical mechanisms

of the fire, but also

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how the humans will respond

based on the road

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network, their experience,

who they are, what they do.

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So there is a lot of tools

to factoring this kind of information

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and try to merge them in order to provide

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an informed support for decisions.

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And this is really what is happening

in recent years with a lot of new tools

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that are based on VR, AI, and in general,

everything that comes from simulations.

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I also want to bring up an interesting

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anecdote

when it comes to the scale of the problem.

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Ten years ago, together

with some colleagues, that

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with the research in this space,

we were thinking about imagining

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a simulation tool that could cope

with 100,000 people evacuation.

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And back then, you know, when we were

talking to funding agencies, the feedback

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we were getting was that this was sci fi,

that this will never happen.

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And then a couple of years later,

we have seen it with Fort McMurray,

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for instance, in Canada,

where 88,000 people were evacuated.

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That what was sci fi until a

couple of years before it became reality.

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So and as I said, with these tools,

we can also predict

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what is not happened

until now and plan for it.

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And this is very important

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when it comes to climate change

and planning for climate change.

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Okay, coming to the simulation,

who is the user of these simulations?

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And I know

we're going to talk about unity.

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But before we do that

can we talk about what is wooh

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and am I pronouncing that right.

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Like is it woo or is it we we okay.

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Yeah.

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What what is we.

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So we means wildland urban interface.

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So it's where the urban areas

and the inhabited areas

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merge with vegetated areas.

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And that's the really critical parts

because generally if you have largely

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vegetated areas,

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there is not too many people

living in there, which means that at least

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from the human safety perspective, it's

not such a

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complex scenario to deal

with a much smaller number of people.

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But in the WUI, what happens

is that you have people leaving

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and you may have many people

living in this area.

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Sometimes we talk about thousands

or tens of thousands of people

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living in those areas that are actually

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in dire contact

with vegetation that can burn.

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And that's why basically you are facing

these very challenging scenarios

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with people could potentially be trapped

if you don't have a proper

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emergency planning and evacuation

planning ahead of an emergency occurring.

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As a planner, unfortunately,

we are sprawling into that area.

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And with that, as more

people are moving into the WUI,

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there might be less local knowledge

of what it means to live in that.

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They've never lived there before.

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And so making sure

that everyone is educated, as well as

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all the planning that goes into that.

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And so I think that's why these tools

are really, helpful for us,

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especially as we keep growing

and moving into those areas.

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And so really isn't people induced,

then, is it

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a moving line between like,

cities and natural land?

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It's basically defined

by the percentage of people

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that you have in relation

to the vegetated areas.

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So in order to be considered

that every area, you need to have

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a certain number of people in percentage

and a certain number of vegetation,

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because it cannot be only vegetated area

or it can be only urban area.

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And indeed

these kind of makes this kind of interface

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between the vegetated areas

and the populated areas.

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It's really what creates troubles

when it comes to wildfires, because,

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as I said, there are many, many challenges

of trying to get out people

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from an endangered area where you are

surrounded, possibly by vegetation.

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So I guess dystopian origin stories

would start in the WUI area.

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Is that what we're saying?

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That's unfortunately often the case

because,

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as I said, people risk to get trapped

in that instance.

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Like when we're thinking about these

like climate high spikes

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and trying to help people as like

this one is moving,

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who needs to be informed

or who needs to be involved in

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terms of better

understanding the data in that community?

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I may argue that everyone

has to play a role in this.

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First of all, of course,

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the general public

is the ultimate user of this information.

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But you know, the general public

needs guidance, and that means that

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we need to have a few stakeholders

involved, both at the planning stage.

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So companies and organization

that can support planning of those areas

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can play a very important role

in understanding

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what could happen and dealing beforehand

with the consequences of a wildfire.

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And on the other hand, of course,

emergency responders, as we say,

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because they play a very important role,

along with municipalities

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on planning what to do with the community

if something goes wrong.

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Basically.

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And we've seen different drivers.

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So you have in some areas, policies

and laws in place to require comprehensive

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planning for communities to say,

you know, given different scenarios,

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different hazards, what can your community

do to make sure that they're prepared?

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And so there's that in place

and funding mechanisms in place

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as well as we've seen from bottom up,

from the ground folks who are interested

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in gathering up their community to plan

these evacuation drills on their own.

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So it really can come from both sides.

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It'd be great to have more policies

and laws in place and structure,

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but it's also great

when we see some drills taking place,

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at least I've seen in America, drills

in Colorado, in Oregon

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that the community is starting

because they're concerned for themselves

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or they've gone through

unfortunate situations.

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So they want to be better prepared.

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Where does technology

really sit in this scenario?

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When you were thinking about this idea

of, let's create

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a tool that can support, simulation

for wildfire evacuations,

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how is that idea conceived

and who is the user?

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I'd love to know more about

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who is using it and what are people doing

with that information.

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I can start describing how the idea behind

the tool was conceived.

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And this goes back

to a couple of years ago, maybe

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more than ten years ago,

when myself that there's been doing

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research in the AI evacuation space for

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many years, has had a chat with someone

from Imperial College, Professor

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Rain, that has been work for years

in understanding wildfire spread.

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And we were puzzled

by the fact that we had

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systems and tools that were attempt

to modeling these two problems,

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but they were not talking to each other.

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And that's why we said,

okay, now we need to sit down.

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We need to gather a pool of experts

in different domains

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that can help us

in developing such types of tools.

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And that's why I also changed

came into the game

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because we wanted to also understand

potential users of those tools.

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What could I do with them?

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And joining forces

to try to have a tool that address

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all the key aspects

that are affecting a wildfire evacuation.

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So that's how the general idea came,

because, as I said,

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a tool to just solve part of the problem

is not what we really need.

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We need something that is able to address

all the different aspects

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that play a role in a wildfire.

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So who was involved in that product

design?

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And also and we go before I keep going.

Congratulations.

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Like I recently heard that you'd won

an award for the specific tool.

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Yeah.

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We are really proud

because this is an award

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from the National Fire

Protection Association in the US,

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which is basically the main regulator

in the US when it comes to fire safety.

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And they have a knowledge,

the work that we have done, with this,

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Foundation award.

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So it's really good news for us.

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But as I said,

this effort started almost ten years ago,

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and it involves

Imperial College in London.

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And we had colleagues

from the National Research Council Canada

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because of course, it's a key driver

in research on wildfire safety.

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We also had a GHD involved

and a few other partners

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at MIT in Australia that we tried

to get the right expertise on board

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from different parts of the world,

and also to have that kind of perspective

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that we could not just do a tool

there was by researchers, for researchers,

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but we want to make it something

useful for end users like GHD.

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So someone that can take this type of tool

and make it into an actionable tool

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for designing against wildfire

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or planning for wildfire evacuation

emergencies, tends this like frequently

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in their projects, like when to use it

has in improving the role for evacuation.

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So Cameron and I are those kind of uses.

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And we're working in that loop

with Enrico's team,

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and the research is to provide

that kind of industry feedback

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as the tools and the features

that we want to have in Lunity.

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And obviously, as Enrico mentioned,

they have incredibly complex systems

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with challenging in size and scale

and fast evolving at that.

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Sometimes those complex systems make it

difficult to derive possible outcomes.

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So using unity as planners

or emergency responders

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or indeed for the community, it gives you

the ability when you're considering

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emergency response and evacuation

to assess and compare options.

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And then when you're kind of modeling that

or doing those tabletops

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and discussing it,

you identify those vulnerabilities

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that you may not be

and kind of thought about before.

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So we're using it in

2 or 3 different ways.

00;14;47;28 - 00;14;49;20

One in the in the planning phase.

00;14;49;20 - 00;14;50;04

So that's

00;14;50;04 - 00;14;54;16

if we're kind of assessing the impact

of those potential land zone changes.

00;14;54;19 - 00;14;59;05

Or as we mentioned earlier, the increase

increasing population in the movie itself.

00;14;59;21 - 00;15;03;16

So we can assess the impacts for that

both under the current infrastructure.

00;15;03;19 - 00;15;06;28

So can that new development

be accommodated in that infrastructure,

00;15;07;09 - 00;15;10;10

or do we need to look at assessing

capital infrastructure projects.

00;15;10;13 - 00;15;13;21

So what would the impact be

if we were to evacuate with the roads

00;15;13;24 - 00;15;16;27

that we have today,

or the roads that we might have tomorrow,

00;15;17;00 - 00;15;21;13

if we to have some need to widen that

or to add in a new road, for example.

00;15;22;00 - 00;15;25;08

And then the second use

that we've got is for sensitivity

00;15;25;11 - 00;15;28;11

so that we can have

a robust plan in place.

00;15;28;17 - 00;15;32;05

What happens if we were to to lose

an escape as a result of the wildfire

00;15;32;08 - 00;15;35;29

expanding to the south, for example,

and we can only evacuate to the north?

00;15;36;12 - 00;15;39;27

And what's the impacts of

if we were to have those new refuge areas

00;15;40;09 - 00;15;44;02

or changes in population

behavior, for example, response times,

00;15;44;05 - 00;15;46;28

if this was to happen at night versus

in the middle of the day,

00;15;46;28 - 00;15;49;18

would that change

how people are moving around them,

00;15;49;18 - 00;15;52;18

the traffic patterns

that we have as a result of that?

00;15;53;02 - 00;15;55;12

Are you simulating

like new developments as well?

00;15;55;12 - 00;15;59;11

We know that urban sprawl is another thing

that's really contributing to growth

00;15;59;14 - 00;16;04;01

all over the world as also impacting

climate change, but coming to this topic,

00;16;04;04 - 00;16;07;06

how is this tool

helping with these other factors,

00;16;07;09 - 00;16;12;00

like these externalities that are really

a reality of evacuation in general?

00;16;12;16 - 00;16;12;22

Yeah.

00;16;12;22 - 00;16;15;24

So we might see a community

in Northern California, for example,

00;16;15;27 - 00;16;17;19

that's looking to put a new development

00;16;17;19 - 00;16;20;26

in part of that kind of unbuilt

where we area that, that green.

00;16;20;29 - 00;16;22;28

And and then what's the impacts

00;16;22;28 - 00;16;25;28

of the population in that area

increasing by 20% where they don't

00;16;26;01 - 00;16;27;01

change the infrastructure.

00;16;27;04 - 00;16;30;12

How long does it take people to escape

under the same conditions?

00;16;30;15 - 00;16;33;23

And then we can run the exact same test

with that population uplift

00;16;34;02 - 00;16;37;19

and see how much longer it's taking

for people to reach those refuge areas.

00;16;37;28 - 00;16;41;24

So we're able to clearly compare

and contrast those available options

00;16;42;04 - 00;16;46;06

while keeping some of the variables

constant, which is good for being able

00;16;46;09 - 00;16;49;09

to be able to compare the impacts

that one changes having,

00;16;49;15 - 00;16;52;21

which is something that you don't get

the beauty of having in in real life.

00;16;53;16 - 00;16;57;06

One of the interesting things about Wunity

is that it can model

00;16;57;09 - 00;17;01;07

pedestrian movement, traffic movement,

as well as wildfire spread.

00;17;01;12 - 00;17;04;03

So as Dan is talking

about all these different scenarios,

00;17;04;06 - 00;17;07;22

this is what only they can do

to help us really estimate,

00;17;07;29 - 00;17;09;26

you know, the timing,

what's going to happen?

00;17;09;29 - 00;17;13;11

Where are we seeing congestion

and planning for

00;17;13;16 - 00;17;17;01

getting a community out

with different evacuation routes?

00;17;17;04 - 00;17;19;00

As Dan is saying, with the communities

00;17;19;00 - 00;17;21;29

that are being built out,

do they have enough ways to get out?

00;17;22;26 - 00;17;24;24

Now that you've collected

the data, you've done

00;17;24;24 - 00;17;28;14

all the simulations who implement it,

are you giving it to planners?

00;17;28;17 - 00;17;31;19

Like, how is it tangible for that

everyday person in the community?

00;17;32;07 - 00;17;35;15

So our projects

that we've been using right now

00;17;35;27 - 00;17;40;20

are going towards the jurisdictions,

the cities, the counties that can use this

00;17;40;23 - 00;17;44;18

information for their planning documents,

their comprehensive planning.

00;17;44;29 - 00;17;45;27

That's just one way.

00;17;45;27 - 00;17;48;27

But also the community

can take this information

00;17;49;00 - 00;17;52;17

and help them for even practicing

future drills

00;17;52;20 - 00;17;56;09

or seeing what they need to do

and maybe advocate on their end as well.

00;17;56;25 - 00;17;57;10

Got it.

00;17;57;10 - 00;18;02;16

And so and of if you were in a community

and you saw an evacuation plan or a plan

00;18;02;19 - 00;18;04;23

that's being put in place

in front of community, could you say,

00;18;04;23 - 00;18;07;18

oh, this is coming from this specific

simulation?

00;18;07;21 - 00;18;11;21

Well, I have a very interesting case

because, recently

00;18;11;24 - 00;18;16;09

and Cameron was involved as well,

we were actually asked by a community

00;18;16;12 - 00;18;20;28

in Colorado to go there

and, observe an evacuation drill.

00;18;21;01 - 00;18;24;18

And we asked them back to collect data.

00;18;24;25 - 00;18;30;24

And that was useful to inform simulations

and help us calibrating our models.

00;18;30;27 - 00;18;34;23

And it was really encouraging

for people like us

00;18;34;26 - 00;18;38;05

that we work with simulations

to see to which extent

00;18;38;19 - 00;18;44;07

the simulation that we produce are in line

with what happened in the real world.

00;18;44;16 - 00;18;47;23

Because one of the key challenges

of developing simulators

00;18;47;26 - 00;18;51;10

is that you can be the best

computer scientist in the world,

00;18;51;13 - 00;18;53;20

or you can be the best

mathematician in the world.

00;18;53;23 - 00;18;57;03

But if you want to have something

that is usable and actionable,

00;18;57;11 - 00;19;00;02

you need to be able to represent

the real war.

00;19;00;02 - 00;19;03;07

So a common effort by researchers

00;19;03;10 - 00;19;09;07

like us is to try to systematically

compare what you will get from a simulator

00;19;09;10 - 00;19;13;11

with, real life behavior

and real world events.

00;19;13;14 - 00;19;18;20

So and as you can imagine,

it's much easier for us to collect

00;19;18;23 - 00;19;22;17

such type of data during evacuation drills

because we know this beforehand

00;19;22;26 - 00;19;24;01

than during an event.

00;19;24;01 - 00;19;28;14

Although a lot of the work

that we have been doing in developing

00;19;28;17 - 00;19;32;21

and testing our model is also based,

for instance, of traffic data

00;19;32;29 - 00;19;38;12

from real events, because fortunately,

there are many places around the world

00;19;38;15 - 00;19;41;13

which, are very generous in sharing

00;19;41;16 - 00;19;44;21

data, for instance, that they get

from traffic measurements and so on.

00;19;44;23 - 00;19;45;14

So, for instance,

00;19;45;17 - 00;19;48;12

the California Department

of Transportation share pretty much

00;19;48;12 - 00;19;52;12

all the information publicly

about the traffic on the roads, even

00;19;52;15 - 00;19;56;19

during wildfires, which means

that we could actually source those data

00;19;56;22 - 00;20;01;00

and systematically

use them to develop and test city.

00;20;01;08 - 00;20;06;06

But as I mentioned, it's an important

aspect to highlight every tool.

00;20;06;09 - 00;20;10;12

It would be as good as the data

that are used to calibrate the tool.

00;20;10;24 - 00;20;14;08

And one of the huge efforts

that we are putting in

00;20;14;18 - 00;20;17;27

when it is, is to try to increase more

and more the pool of data

00;20;18;00 - 00;20;19;07

to feed into the tool

00;20;19;10 - 00;20;23;18

in order to be able to account

for a wide variety of scenarios, because,

00;20;23;21 - 00;20;29;09

as I said, simulating, rural or weak

communities, smaller community,

00;20;29;16 - 00;20;34;05

it's not the same thing of simulating

a hundred thousand people evacuation,

00;20;34;08 - 00;20;37;11

but our tool is meant to be able

to reproduce

00;20;37;20 - 00;20;40;22

both of these kind of extreme scenarios.

00;20;41;12 - 00;20;43;22

Yeah, that's really interesting

because as a person

00;20;43;22 - 00;20;45;26

that studied economics,

I always struggled with that.

00;20;45;26 - 00;20;49;12

Like every model that you build out

has like 10 million assumptions to it.

00;20;49;26 - 00;20;51;18

Most of the time it's not realistic.

00;20;51;18 - 00;20;52;24

So it's really nice to hear

00;20;52;24 - 00;20;56;20

that you're actually building something

that has like a realistic implication.

00;20;56;23 - 00;20;59;09

And people can go out and plan it,

and you've tested

00;20;59;09 - 00;21;02;09

it with, a couple of different

municipalities.

00;21;02;12 - 00;21;06;06

It's not the only tool

that you use to plan for these responses,

00;21;06;09 - 00;21;10;02

and this only uses a suite of tools

to supplement the planning

00;21;10;05 - 00;21;11;09

and evacuation performance.

00;21;11;09 - 00;21;13;01

So we have to think about

how we can engage

00;21;13;01 - 00;21;15;01

with the community from the outset

to make sure

00;21;15;01 - 00;21;18;02

that we're preventing these incidents

in the first place.

00;21;18;05 - 00;21;21;08

But if they do occur, to make sure

that we have sufficiently engaged

00;21;21;11 - 00;21;24;12

with them to ensure that individuals,

especially those that are

00;21;24;18 - 00;21;28;00

most vulnerable, are prepared

to evacuate in a timely manner

00;21;28;17 - 00;21;30;06

so we can

we know what the model might say.

00;21;30;08 - 00;21;33;16

We need to make sure that people actually

are ready and waiting to be able

00;21;33;19 - 00;21;36;16

to be evacuated as

and when those events arise.

00;21;36;19 - 00;21;38;10

Yeah, that's

actually going to be my next question,

00;21;38;10 - 00;21;39;24

which is around stakeholder engagement.

00;21;39;24 - 00;21;42;27

So now you have like all this data

and it's being shared with the planners.

00;21;43;00 - 00;21;46;03

But for communities at risk

where they might not have the same

00;21;46;06 - 00;21;51;23

amount of resources, have you seen

this municipalities act and support

00;21;51;26 - 00;21;55;03

various types of communities and build out

stakeholder engagement plans?

00;21;55;06 - 00;21;57;10

Are you involved in that process as well?

00;21;57;13 - 00;22;00;15

Yeah, I think this goes back

to the kind of relationship

00;22;00;18 - 00;22;03;23

between industry and researchers

that Enrico mentioned,

00;22;04;03 - 00;22;07;01

and that's actually led

to a new development within mobility.

00;22;07;01 - 00;22;11;08

We're going to show or we show

even where you can actually be able

00;22;11;11 - 00;22;15;05

to put these outputs

onto tabletops, desktops.

00;22;15;14 - 00;22;18;17

I've been able to kind of zoom in

and see where people are each

00;22;18;20 - 00;22;22;08

time as part of that evacuation,

and that's just a really important

00;22;22;19 - 00;22;26;25

method of being able to engage people,

to be able to see that work is being done.

00;22;27;13 - 00;22;30;18

To address this important issue,

but also to give them a kind of feel

00;22;30;21 - 00;22;32;01

of what it's going to look like

00;22;32;01 - 00;22;35;27

and of where those emerging cities

and at high risk points may be.

00;22;36;00 - 00;22;39;00

So kind of visualizing those outputs

in a way that can be

00;22;39;03 - 00;22;42;04

easily understood by the communities,

is a great development.

00;22;42;07 - 00;22;46;15

And Adam, yeah, because to add on this,

if we will just plug out

00;22;46;18 - 00;22;51;01

a bunch of numbers, yes,

maybe to a fire engineer could be useful.

00;22;51;09 - 00;22;56;06

But for a general public or

even stakeholders that are not necessarily

00;22;56;13 - 00;23;00;12

used to work with the simulation tools

may not be as easily accessible.

00;23;00;15 - 00;23;05;08

So the most recent work that we have been

put has been placed on trying

00;23;05;16 - 00;23;10;04

to visualize outputs in a way

that could be easily digested, let's say,

00;23;10;13 - 00;23;11;17

by everyone.

00;23;11;17 - 00;23;15;08

And also in an interactive way,

so that you could basically see

00;23;15;11 - 00;23;18;19

the evolution of the wildfire evacuation

hypothetical

00;23;18;22 - 00;23;23;00

about wildfire evacuation scenarios,

and then take decisions

00;23;23;03 - 00;23;26;26

based on what you see or inform population

based on what you see.

00;23;27;04 - 00;23;30;22

Do you ever go into the world of augmented

reality,

00;23;30;25 - 00;23;35;02

virtual reality, or any other technologies

to kind of help with that?

00;23;35;12 - 00;23;37;03

What's the experience

that you're building out?

00;23;37;06 - 00;23;40;25

Yeah, the name,

when it actually comes from the tool

00;23;40;28 - 00;23;44;15

that we use behind the scenes to develop

the simulator is unity.

00;23;44;18 - 00;23;47;16

That is one of the most known game

engines.

00;23;47;16 - 00;23;50;13

Just for explaining

what the game engine is, is

00;23;50;16 - 00;23;53;18

what you see behind the scene

when you develop a video game.

00;23;53;27 - 00;23;57;06

This is exactly the world

where we come from, where we are

00;23;57;17 - 00;24;02;15

basically natively a tool

that is designed to work,

00;24;02;22 - 00;24;06;21

for instance, in VR,

so that in the not so far future,

00;24;07;02 - 00;24;11;11

we will not just have a visualization

on the screen on what is happening,

00;24;11;17 - 00;24;14;24

but you should be able

also to wear a head mounted display.

00;24;14;27 - 00;24;17;26

For instance,

am being leaving in first person

00;24;17;29 - 00;24;20;24

how it will look like

if your house is burning.

00;24;20;27 - 00;24;22;23

So that's the idea down the road.

00;24;22;23 - 00;24;23;29

And those things

00;24;23;29 - 00;24;27;18

until a couple of years ago again

looked like sci fi dystopian future.

00;24;27;21 - 00;24;32;02

Now we are getting closer and closer

to actually have something like this

00;24;32;05 - 00;24;35;04

that is not just a game,

but it's actually based

00;24;35;12 - 00;24;38;10

on the physics on the real world data.

00;24;38;13 - 00;24;42;08

So not just, the fetishes

represent of what will happen,

00;24;42;15 - 00;24;46;10

but based on real science

behind the what will actually happen.

00;24;46;18 - 00;24;51;04

So that's the direction where we are

going, especially with VR, mixed reality

00;24;51;11 - 00;24;56;26

to have, tools that can be directly

used to have a first hand experience

00;24;57;03 - 00;25;00;08

of what will look like to leave

a wildfire.

00;25;00;26 - 00;25;01;08

Yeah.

00;25;01;09 - 00;25;05;00

As a designer and an innovation lead,

I always believe that experiences

00;25;05;03 - 00;25;07;29

are like the best way for somebody

to go and test out strategies.

00;25;07;29 - 00;25;10;29

So whether it's visualization,

gamification or,

00;25;11;07 - 00;25;12;04

you know, different ways

00;25;12;04 - 00;25;15;24

to make something more tangible,

I think it just helps with like,

00;25;15;27 - 00;25;17;17

what are some of the flaws

that could happen

00;25;17;17 - 00;25;20;10

if you were to design, for example,

an evacuation plan.

00;25;20;13 - 00;25;23;26

So it's it's awesome to hear that

you have poached a bunch of game designers

00;25;23;29 - 00;25;27;05

to develop something that's

actually very meaningful and can mitigate,

00;25;27;08 - 00;25;30;27

or at least adapt to climate change

as it's more of a reality.

00;25;31;28 - 00;25;35;01

The way

I see it, this is much bigger than regular

00;25;35;04 - 00;25;38;04

building fire safety engineer,

because the scale of the problem,

00;25;38;11 - 00;25;42;15

the financial aspects involved in

destruction from wildfires is much larger.

00;25;42;26 - 00;25;46;19

And the first ones that would be,

let's say, aggressively pulling themselves

00;25;46;22 - 00;25;50;00

into the market systematically,

they will get a big share of it.

00;25;50;10 - 00;25;52;04

And we are now in that transition point

00;25;52;04 - 00;25;55;12

where the technology

is arriving there on the market.

00;25;55;15 - 00;25;57;22

Any start being used concretely?

00;25;57;25 - 00;25;59;26

Yeah, it's

it's really an iterative process.

00;25;59;26 - 00;26;01;03

You know, as planners

00;26;01;06 - 00;26;05;02

working with the developers like Enrico

and then engaging with the community.

00;26;05;11 - 00;26;06;29

And so what we've seen in Colorado,

00;26;06;29 - 00;26;11;00

we worked with them in 2019,

they did an evacuation drill.

00;26;11;07 - 00;26;15;15

We also collected data for the tool,

provided their feedback on how it went.

00;26;15;18 - 00;26;16;26

You know, what can go better.

00;26;16;29 - 00;26;19;02

And then they did another drill

actually last year.

00;26;19;05 - 00;26;20;19

So we're kind of working

with the communities,

00;26;20;19 - 00;26;22;27

engaging with them

that way to inform the tool.

00;26;22;27 - 00;26;26;04

And then as planners we're going back

to the developers as well.

00;26;26;19 - 00;26;28;00

Yeah. That's awesome.

00;26;28;03 - 00;26;30;29

I know we talked a lot

about climate adaptation.

00;26;30;29 - 00;26;33;10

Like at the end of the day,

some of the simulations

00;26;33;10 - 00;26;37;13

that we're developing,

they are to adapt to climate change.

00;26;37;26 - 00;26;41;06

Do you also use technologies

to help with climate mitigation?

00;26;41;26 - 00;26;45;08

I see that the technology

in the kind of evacuation space,

00;26;45;11 - 00;26;49;19

obviously in the planning side, but we can

increasingly see ourselves using it.

00;26;49;21 - 00;26;53;00

So the kind of identification, prediction

00;26;53;03 - 00;26;56;02

and forecasting of where

these wildfires are going to be.

00;26;56;09 - 00;27;00;06

So the earlier that we can find out

where they are starting

00;27;00;16 - 00;27;03;06

and where they are moving to,

00;27;03;09 - 00;27;06;26

gives us that kind of early warning system

that we can able to either put it out

00;27;06;29 - 00;27;08;26

as quick

as we can before it gets too large,

00;27;08;29 - 00;27;13;25

or that we have as much time to evacuate

people from those areas as we can.

00;27;13;28 - 00;27;15;09

So we're starting to see

00;27;15;12 - 00;27;19;21

quite a lot of technological improvements

on the identification of those fires

00;27;19;24 - 00;27;24;03

and those potential severities

and where they are forecasted to move to.

00;27;24;06 - 00;27;27;20

And obviously that has, it's

not a mitigation, but it's an adaptation

00;27;27;23 - 00;27;31;03

that we're having to find as more

people are moving into the world.

00;27;31;23 - 00;27;35;25

And we're also seeing improvements

around communication as well.

00;27;35;28 - 00;27;38;28

So the ability

to get the messaging out there quicker

00;27;39;02 - 00;27;42;00

and via different methods

than we had previously seen.

00;27;42;03 - 00;27;42;26

And obviously

00;27;42;29 - 00;27;46;28

the more people that find out about it

earlier, the shorter their response time,

00;27;47;03 - 00;27;50;03

the quicker that we can get

those communities evacuated.

00;27;50;08 - 00;27;51;10

Got it.

00;27;51;13 - 00;27;54;25

What is the future of wildfire evacuation

00;27;54;28 - 00;27;58;17

and using these simulations, or the future

of just using these simulations?

00;27;58;20 - 00;28;02;28

Overall, I'm

just really excited for using these tools

00;28;03;01 - 00;28;05;21

and really the integration of these tools

as we've been talking about.

00;28;05;21 - 00;28;10;04

So having lunity, having AI

and seeing how we integrate these tools,

00;28;10;14 - 00;28;12;20

and as we collect

more data, it's only going to get better.

00;28;12;20 - 00;28;14;27

So it's I'm really looking forward

to that.

00;28;15;00 - 00;28;17;24

Yeah, I think the pervasiveness of this

is not going to go away.

00;28;17;24 - 00;28;21;10

So I guess in terms of the future

where evacuation modeling for communities

00;28;21;13 - 00;28;24;23

is going to go out, unfortunately it's

going to impact more people.

00;28;24;26 - 00;28;28;09

But hopefully through these tools

and the the pervasiveness of these tools

00;28;28;12 - 00;28;30;08

and to its standards and guidance,

it becomes

00;28;30;08 - 00;28;33;29

much more of a streamlined approach

of which communities from the bottom up

00;28;34;02 - 00;28;37;02

and from the top down and those provinces

and those states

00;28;37;09 - 00;28;40;02

can start to mean

that we get those responses

00;28;40;02 - 00;28;43;02

quicker and more efficient

to impact those communities.

00;28;43;06 - 00;28;46;27

To me, the main key take home message

00;28;47;00 - 00;28;50;25

is that we are now at the turning point

and what was happening.

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Maybe 30, 40, 50 years ago

when we were designing fire

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safety in buildings is now happening

in wildfires at the community scale.

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safety in buildings is now happening

in wildfires at the community scale.

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We will soon reach a point in which

when you all to build a community,

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when you want to plan, new developments,

you will have to do

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an engineering analysis

for wildfire evacuation

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in the same way you would have done it

at the building scale.

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If you're planning a new hospital

or a new facility,

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and this will have

a huge set of implications on the market,

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because, as I said,

the scale of the problem is much larger.

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And I don't talk about twice as large.

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I talk about 10, 100, 1000 times as large

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as what we have when we talk about

designing for fire safety in buildings.

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Brought to you by Nexus, Publish By GHD.

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